Econometric Research Articles

The creative–destructive force of hurricanes: evidence from technological adoption in colonial Jamaican sugar estates

AbstractWhile in the early part of the nineteenth-century Jamaica was one of the world’s leading sugar producers, the abolition of slavery, the flooding of sugar markets with cheap European beet sugar, and the equalization and finally elimination of sugar import duties across the British empire led to a need for more efficient ways to produce sugar. However, it has been widely noted that Jamaica sugar estates were late in adopting more efficient production techniques, arguably due to inadequate financing. This paper investigates what role the destructive forces of hurricanes may have played in inducing Jamaica to finally modernize its sugar production. To this end, we combine a geo-referenced exhaustive data set of Jamaican sugar estates with a measure of localized hurricane damage constructed from historical hurricane tracks over the period 1882 to 1930. Our econometric analysis shows that hurricane strikes increased the probability that a surviving estate upgraded its sugar processing technology, particularly when the price of sugar was high and the price of the other main exporting crop (bananas) was low. Additionally, while a government hurricane loan programme working through local loan banks did help plantations to adopt new machinery, this depended on the damage not being too large.

The Impact of Blockchain Technology on Financial Markets and Its Future Trends: An Economic Perspective Based on Data Analysis

Based on the economic perspective of data analysis, this paper deeply discusses the impact of blockchain technology on the financial market and its future trend. By using econometrics, we systematically analyze how blockchain technology can change the operation mechanism of financial markets, improve transaction efficiency, reduce transaction costs, and enhance the security and transparency of financial markets. The study has found that the decentralized nature of blockchain technology can help to break down the barriers of the traditional financial market and promote the popularization and inclusiveness of financial services. At the same time, the automatic execution function of smart contracts simplifies the process of financial transactions and reduces the risk of human intervention and fraud. In addition, the blockchain technology has also enhanced the trust mechanism of the financial markets by improving the security and traceability of the data. In terms of econometric analysis, we use a large amount of financial data to empirically test the impact of blockchain technology on the performance of the financial market by building regression models, time series analysis and other methods. The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between the application of blockchain technology and financial market efficiency, liquidity and stability. Looking into the future, with the continuous innovation and improvement of blockchain technology, its application in the financial market will be more extensive and deeper. On the one hand, blockchain technology is expected to promote the further digitalization and intelligence of the financial market, and improve the convenience and personalization of financial services. On the other hand, blockchain technology will also promote the cross-border integration and innovation of the financial market, and inject new vitality into the global economic development.

Spatiotemporal variations and influencing factors of methane emissions from livestock in China: A spatial econometric analysis.

In recent years, China has been implementing policies to improve the livestock industry in response to the global trend toward green and low-carbon development. These policies include the establishment of demonstration zones for high-standard agriculture, the relocation of farms to the north, etc. This study aims to investigate the impact of changes in the spatial structure of the livestock industry on methane emissions. It used panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2001 to 2021 and applied the IPCC methodology to quantify methane emissions at both the national and provincial levels. In addition, a spatial econometric model was used to analyze the impact of changes in the spatial structure of the livestock industry on methane emissions. The results show that methane from livestock in China decreased from 13.85 million tons in 2001 to 11.82 million tons in 2021. In addition, methane emissions from livestock in China show a significant spatial gradient and correlation. The Southwest has the highest methane emissions, accounting for 24 % of the total emissions. After controlling for spatial correlation and other factors in the model, it was found that the spatial structure of the livestock industry has a different influence on methane emissions both in the province and in neighboring provinces. To improve methane emission efficiency in the future, policies such as establishing functional zones for livestock farming, strengthening technological innovation and sharing for green development in agriculture, and promoting the optimization of agricultural and rural management structures should be implemented.

Subnational institutions, firm capabilities and eco-innovation

Abstract We examine the role institutional pressures, at the subnational level, play in the generation of eco-innovations and explicitly consider how they interact with firms’ heterogeneous capabilities and ownership characteristics. Theoretically, we combine elements from institutional theory with the resource-based view of the firm to develop our hypotheses. Empirically, we use a novel dataset over the period 2003–2013 compiled from several sources: (I) environmental regulations (city-level) from the China Environmental Statistical Yearbooks and City Statistical Yearbooks; (II) green patents (firm-level) from the China National Intellectual Property Administration; and (III) ownership (firm-level) from the National Bureau of Statistics. Our econometric analysis employs an instrumental variable (IV) approach that controls for endogeneity and a negative binomial multilevel methodology for robustness. The results show that institutional pressures associated with environmental regulations, implemented at city level, lead to more green patents produced by firms in these jurisdictions. Crucially, the effectiveness of environmental regulation is enhanced when firms invest more in their internal technological capabilities. Finally, we find that a firm’s affiliation with a business group enhances the positive effects of regulations in terms of the production of eco-innovations.

Research status and global trends of late-life depression from 2004 to 2023: bibliometric analysis

BackgroundGlobal research hotspots and future research trends in the neurobiological mechanisms of late-life depression (LLD) as well as its diagnosis and treatment are not yet clear.ObjectivesThis study profiled the current state of global research on LLD and predicted future research trends in the field.MethodsLiterature with the subject term LLD was retrieved from the Web of Science Core Collection, and CiteSpace software was used to perform econometric and co-occurrence analyses. The results were visualized using CiteSpace, VOSviewer, and other software packages.ResultsIn total, 10,570 publications were included in the analysis. Publications on LLD have shown an increasing trend since 2004. The United States and the University of California had the highest number of publications, followed consecutively by China and England, making these countries and institutions the most influential in the field. Reynolds, Charles F. was the author with the most publications. The International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry was the journal with the most articles and citations. According to the co-occurrence analysis and keyword/citation burst analysis, cognitive impairment, brain network dysfunction, vascular disease, and treatment of LLD were research hotspots.ConclusionLate-life depression has attracted increasing attention from researchers, with the number of publications increasing annually. However, many questions remain unaddressed in this field, such as the relationship between LLD and cognitive impairment and dementia, or the impact of vascular factors and brain network dysfunction on LLD. Additionally, the treatment of patients with LLD is currently a clinical challenge. The results of this study will help researchers find suitable research partners and journals, as well as predict future hotspots.

Assessing the impacts of crop production on climate change: An in-depth analysis of long-term determinants and policy implications.

This research investigates the long-term determinants of carbon emissions in three diverse regions-Europe and Central Asia (ECA), Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)-spanning 1990 to 2020. Utilizing advanced econometric models and analyses, including the Regularized Common Correlated Effects Estimator (rCCE), Common Correlated Effects Estimator (CCE), and Mean-Group (MG) approach, the study explores the intricate relationships between carbon emissions, crop production, emissions per agricultural production, energy consumption, renewable energy consumption, per capita GDP, and population. Region-specific nuances are uncovered, highlighting the varying dynamics: ECA exhibits intricate and non-significant relationships, SSA showcases significant effects of population dynamics and green technology adoption, and the MENA region reveals a nuanced interplay between emissions per agricultural production.The findings underscore the universal efficacy of green technology adoption for mitigation. Strategies for mitigating carbon emissions in the agricultural sector require diversified energy transition approaches, emphasizing efficiency enhancements, green technology adoption, and tailored population management strategies based on regional intricacies. Counterfactual simulations indicate the potential efficacy of strategic measures targeting crop production to reduce carbon emissions, while acknowledging the nuanced relationship between economic growth and emissions. Policymakers are urged to recognize the persistence in emission patterns, emphasizing the importance of targeted interventions to transition towards more sustainable trajectories. Overall, the research provides essential insights for crafting effective policies at both regional and global scales to address the complexities of climate change mitigation in the agricultural sector.

Testing the Ambition Loop: Do Country- and Company-Level Net-Zero Targets Reinforce Each Other? A Global Comparison

One theory about company- and country-level climate actions is that they interact with one another through a mutually reinforcing “ambition loop”. Using publicly available data on country- and company-level net-zero targets, our econometric analysis reveals a positive relationship between state and company: A country introducing a domestic net-zero target in law increases the likelihood of companies introducing their own voluntary targets and vice-versa. Our findings offer important insights into the mechanisms of climate governance—knowledge that will be critical if we are to meet global net-zero targets by 2050.

Towards sustainability: The spatiotemporal patterns and influence mechanism of urban sprawl intensity in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration

Urban sprawl has been a great challenge to current sustainable development goals, especially in urban agglomeration areas. Based on the nighttime light and WorldPop population grid data from 2011 to 2020, this study established a multidimensional evaluation system of urban sprawl intensity in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration (YRDUA) with a "scale-density-structure" framework. The Dagum Gini coefficient, spatial Markov chain, and econometric analysis were applied to analyze urban sprawl intensity. The results suggested that: (1) the urban sprawl intensities of the cities in the YRDUA became more imbalanced over the decade; (2) the mild sprawl cities were dominant in the study area, but the moderate and severe sprawl cities were mostly located in the west and the only inland province--Anhui; (3) the spatial distribution of urban sprawl intensity indicated "club convergence" and strong spatial correlation effect, but poor stability; and (4) land resource mismatch and population urbanization were the main explanatory variables for urban sprawl intensity, with large cities more sensitive to the former, and medium cities to the latter. These findings can provide important policy implications to sustainable development and compact growth.

The Impact of Data Elements on Enterprises’ Capital Market Performance: Insights from Stock Liquidity in China and Implications for Global Markets

Amidst a backdrop of global economic challenges and shifting market dynamics, this study highlights the transformative role of data elements in enhancing enterprise performance within capital markets, particularly focusing on China’s leading position in the digital economy as a model with implications for global markets. This study utilized a panel data set consisting of 10,493 observations from 2687 listed enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen A-shares from 2015 to 2023. An econometric analysis was conducted using a two-way fixed effects model to explore the impact of enterprise data elements on capital market performance in the digital economy and its underlying mechanisms. The research reveals that the digitization of enterprise production factors can significantly enhance performance in the capital market. The study further suggests that enterprise innovation and enterprise value play a crucial role in mediating this effect. This paper introduces a new concept called “data elements”, which expands the definition and assessment methods of enterprise data capabilities. It goes beyond just digital transformation at the application level and includes data governance at the basic ability level. This approach provides a more accurate and comprehensive understanding of the different elements of data. Moreover, the research expands the research scope of microeconomic entities’ economic benefits, thereby extending the value contributed by enterprise data elements to their performance in the capital market. Additionally, this study reveals the relationship between enterprise data elementization and capital market performance through intermediary analysis of enterprise innovation performance and enterprise value, which unveils the “black box” and clarifies the transmission pathway. The findings of this research hold considerable theoretical value and have far-reaching practical implications for government policies concerning data elements and the development of high-quality enterprises, suggesting pathways for global markets to leverage data for enhanced enterprise performance and economic resilience. The results are particularly useful for policymakers, enterprise managers, and scholars in understanding and implementing data-driven strategies in capital markets.

Decoding the impact of fiscal decentralization on urban pollution intensity in China: A spatial econometric analysis

Utilizing city-level data from China, the paper employs a spatial econometric analysis to investigate the impact of fiscal decentralization on urban pollution. Empirical evidence indicates: (1) In the context of the emphasis of ecological civilization construction in China, an increase of fiscal autonomy for local governments is conducive to mitigating urban pollution intensity. Specifically, fiscal decentralization in one city not only promotes a reduction in local pollution intensity but alleviates environmental pollution problems in adjacent cities through spatial spillover effects. (2) Industrial structure upgrading and green technology progress become crucial measures for local governments to realize pollution reduction targets through fiscal expenditure. (3) Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the positive significance of decentralization is most prominent in the eastern China, while local governments with fiscal autonomy in central region tend to transfer pollution to neighboring cities. (4) There is a threshold characteristic for fiscal decentralization to promote a reduction in urban pollution intensity, and its marginal effect becomes more significant accompanied by continuous introduction of sophisticated foreign direct investment. Finally, the paper summarizes the potential significance of fiscal decentralization among Chinese local governments against the background of “Chinese-style decentralization” and proposes corresponding policy recommendations.

Comparative Analysis of the Productivity and Efficiency of Cluster and Individual Farming in West Arsi Zone of Oromia

The main objective of this study was to compare the productivity and efficiency of clustered and individual farming; to identify factors affecting clusters farming practice and to know the view/perception of farmers for clustered farming approach in West Arsi zone. To conduct the study, primary data was collected from 152 randomly selected household heads through semi-structured questionnaire. Secondary data were also collected from different sources including CSA, ZOANR, DOANR, and from published and unpublished sources to supplement primary data. In this study both descriptive statistics and econometric analysis were employed. The primary data was analyzed using descriptive statistics and stochastic efficiency decomposition method to decompose TE. Stochastic Frontier Approach (SFA) was used for its ability to distinguish inefficiency from deviations that are caused by factors beyond the control of farmers. The productivity of wheat per hectare was 47.17 and 39.042 quintal for cluster and individual farming respectively which is statically significant at 1% level. The study result revealed that the mean of wheat TE was about 78.46%, for cluster farming and 69.25%, for individual farming as the Cobb-Douglas functional form indicate that. As the result of research analysis indicates that, the cumulative sum of farmers’ perception towards the compatibility of cluster farming with the socio-economic situational circumstances was 4.093 suggesting farmers perceive positively that it was compatibility with their socio-economic situational circumstances. The likelihood of farmers to practice cluster farming positively influenced by Sex of HH, age of HH, nearest market center, distance to FTC, participation on field visit and participation in social organization in West Arsi zone. The study suggested that farmer adoption decisions are affected by above mentioned factors and policies addressing each decision process and cross-cutting issues are required to improve farmer participation in cluster farming. In addition, the study suggested the need for policies to discourage land fragmentation and promote, participation in field visit, and strengthening social network of farmers, to increase participation of farmers in cluster farming in the zone.

Exploring farmland price determinants in Northern Italy using a spatial regression analysis

Using spatial regression models, we detect determinants of farmland’s prices in a rural area located in the upper Treviso plain (Veneto region, Italy). Econometric analysis is based on a Spatial linear regression model able to account for spatial lags in the data. Estimates show which intrinsic and extrinsic characteristics have the greatest influence on price, and how buyers and sellers’ profiles also matter on the price determination. Our application fosters spatial regression models in rural real estate market analysis and appraisal, and highlights that in the area under study the farmland’s prices are significantly affected by factors that are rarely considered in the literature, such as sellers and buyers’ profiles, the land use in the context where the sold plot is located matters, the hydraulic risk of the area and the presence of large infrastructures.

Analyzing Macroeconomic Indicators that May Affect Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Panel Data Analysis in the Context of Income Level Classification (1990-2019)

The purpose of the study was to ascertain whether the export-import coverage ratio (EXIM), the income of natural resources (NATR), labour force participation rate (LFPR), and foreign direct investment (FDI) had a positive or negative impact on economic growth for 34 Sub-Saharan African countries using data from 1990 to 2019. The change in Gross Domestic Product Per Capita (%) is used in the study as a proxy for the economic growth variable, and Sub-Saharan African nations were categorized based on the United Nations' income classification system to create more homogeneous groups and consequently more accurate analysis results. To do this, 34 Sub-Saharan African nations were divided into three income categories: lower-middle-income, upper-middle-income, and low-income. The income categories established by the UN were considered while drawing this distinction. This divide led to the analysis of 18 low-income nations, 12 lower-middle-income countries, and 4 upper-middle-income countries. One of the dynamic panel data analysis techniques, the two-step system GMM panel data analysis, was used as the econometric analysis approach. According to the estimations, FDI in lower-middle-income sub-Saharan African countries was statistically significant and inversely related to economic growth; it was observed that the coverage ratio of exports to imports has a statistically significant and linear relationship. None of these independent variables were found to influence economic growth in low-income sub-Saharan African countries. There is a statistically significant correlation between the LFPR and NATR and economic development in the upper-middle income category of nations analyzed. As a result, the influence of factors varied and fluctuated on economic growth based on the income levels of different groups.

Internal migrants, skill complementarity and wage premium for local workers: a micro econometric analysis of Chinese households

China’s rapid urbanization has been driven by large-scale internal migrants, and it is worth exploring the impact of internal migrants on local labor markets. Based on data from China’s population census, population sample survey and urban household survey, this study empirically tests the wage premium effect of internal migrants on local labor, and further investigates the mechanisms of wage premium from skill complementarity, as well as the policy adjustment effect of labor market reforms. The results show that: (1) The wage premium effect originating from migrants is significant, and gradually decreases over time and with the increase of local worker wages. (2) The wage premium effect is more prominent in large cities, mega and super-sized cities, which can be explained by economic agglomeration and division of labor induced by skill complementarities. (3) Labor market-oriented reforms contribute to enhancing the wage premium effect, with marginal effects of 3.71% and 3.64%.

The Geography of EU Discontent and the Regional Development Trap

While in recent times many regions have flourished, many others are stuck—or are at risk of becoming stuck—in a development trap. Such regions experience decline in economic growth, employment, and productivity relative to their neighbors and to their own past trajectories. Prolonged periods in development traps are leading to political dissatisfaction and unrest. Such discontent is often translated into support for antisystem parties at the ballot box. In this article we study the link between the risk, intensity, and duration of regional development traps and the rise of discontent in the European Union (EU)—proxied by the support for Eurosceptic parties in national elections between 2013 and 2022—using an econometric analysis at a regional level. The results highlight the strong connection between being stuck in a development trap, often in middle- or high-income regions, and support for Eurosceptic parties. They also suggest that the longer the period of stagnation, the stronger the support for parties opposed to European integration. This relationship remains robust whether considering only the most extreme Eurosceptic parties or including parties with more moderate levels of Euroscepticism.

Is Microcredit and Health Insurance Access Effective for Vulnerable Peoples?

Using secondary data collected from Dschang in the West region of Cameroon, we examined the effectiveness of microcredit and health insurance access on vulnerable groups which includes the physically disabled and other forms of vulnerability. We undertook a statistical and qualitative econometric analysis using a logit model and obtained the following results: microcredit and health insurance access reduce the vulnerability of people via their health, financial and social status. Our findings open the way for some economic measures that should be taken to assist vulnerable people. From a macroeconomic perspective, these measures include the implementation of a food policy targeted towards increasing access to nutrition; a financial policy to improve access to drugs for individuals, and a social policy to achieve a high level of integration of vulnerable peoples and a high level of literacy of individuals. From a microeconomic perspective, we recommend that microfinance managers develop more products specific to and targeting the vulnerable population as well as those involved in small jobs and the informal sector with specific loans that can help them move to formal and more conventional jobs. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper with this objective and methodology focusing on the dataset along with the same case study.

Was the interest burden of the Ottoman public debt sustainable? A cliometric analysis

Purpose The purpose of this study is to determine whether the Ottoman Empire’s net interest payments and foreign debt were sustainable or not in terms of their burden on budget revenues, using the method of historical econometric analysis. Design/methodology/approach In this study, the period between 1847 and 1882 of the Ottoman Empire is analyzed for sustainability analysis. Within the framework of the study, unit root tests and econometric analysis methods frequently used in the literature were used to analyze the sustainability of public debt. In the econometric analysis, in addition to various unit root tests, current econometric analysis methods, in particular Fourier expansion, were also used. Findings The results of econometric analyses showed that the burden of interest payments and foreign debt on the budget of the Ottoman state was unsustainable. This situation clearly shows the reason for the official bankruptcy of the Ottoman Empire, which was declared in 1875. Practical implications Although this study reveals the bankruptcy process of an important structure such as the Ottoman Empire in the historical process through econometric analyses, it also gives a very important message to today’s states. Accordingly, today’s state policies and decision-making mechanisms should take these results into account and strive to make the burden of public interest payments sustainable. It is believed that the study will shed light on the public finance policies of today’s states by drawing lessons from the collapse process of the Ottoman state. Originality/value Unlike the historical assessments in the literature on the decline of the Ottoman Empire, this study presents a cliometric approach by applying current econometric analysis techniques to past historical data. The study explains the unsustainability of the Ottoman Empire’s interest payments and external debt burden in the period under consideration in a way that, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, has not been done before.

Mathematical Modeling and Econometric Analysis of Composite Fuel Combustion Process

In this article, the process of combustion of composite fuel is studied. Particles of hydrocarbon fuel were taken as the object of research. The analysis of the combustion process is carried out on the basis of mathematical modeling. The created mathematical model was solved by the numerical method of finite elements using the Elcut program, and a computer model was developed. The results obtained on the basis of the numerical method were compared with the experimental results, as well as an econometric analysis and forecast based on the regression model. A comparison of the results obtained by the finite element method using the Elcut program with experimental data shows that the error is on average 5% and indicates the physical validity of the equations and boundary conditions (1)-(7) for the mathematical modeling of the considered tasks and use of the Elcut program for numerical calculations.

Visual Econometric Analysis of Research Progress on Starch Based Plastics by CiteSpace

Visual Econometric Analysis of Research Progress on Starch Based Plastics by CiteSpace

Examining the link between tax revenue mobilization efforts and capital flight in African countries

ABSTRACT This article examines the impact of tax revenue mobilization on capital flight in 30 African countries, focusing on the role of natural resources. Over the period 1998–2018, econometric analysis based on dynamic generalized method of moments suggests that tax revenue mobilization reduces capital flight in Africa. However, when countries have more natural or oil resources, the negative impact of tax revenues on capital flight weakens. Therefore, despite the importance of the benefits associated with natural resource wealth (in particular, oil wealth), the latter compromises the impact of tax revenue mobilization on stemming capital flight. Finally, greater responsibility in the management of natural resources and more transparent reporting by companies operating in this sector are needed.